UNREALIZED FERTILITY IN KAZAKHSTAN: THE GAP BETWEEN DESIRED AND ACTUAL NUMBER OF CHILDREN

Abstract

The article analyses the reproductive strategies of Kazakhstan's population based on a representative social survey conducted in 2025 by the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies (KazISS). The sample comprised 8,000 respondents aged 18 and over from all regions of the country. The study aimed to determine the structure of reproductive intentions and identify barriers to the realisation of family strategies. The context is set by a gradual decline in fertility intensity: Kazakhstan's crude birth rate fell from 23.11 per thousand in 2014 to 18.15 in 2024. The methodology is grounded in demographic sociology and operationalises ideal, intended, and actual fertility in accordance with international fertility gap standards. Results show that the two-to-three-child family is the most common model (43.1%), yet 43.7% of respondents would ideally want four or more children, indicating substantial unrealised demographic potential. Key barriers are financial constraints (39.1%), housing problems (23.8%), and uncertainty about the future (16.6%). Gender differences are significant: men are more frequently oriented toward large families (50.3% vs. 37.8% among women). Regional analysis reveals a strong contrast between the south (high prevalence of large families) and the north and centre (low-fertility model). Family value transformation manifests in the spread of the nuclear family model, individualisation of life strategies, and a moderate increase in voluntary childlessness (11.5%). The findings advance understanding of reproductive behaviour in Kazakhstan amid ongoing economic and value transformations and provide empirical evidence relevant to the design of demographic policies.